So, what's next for Stocks

Let me start with my day in the office. It was a mixed bag. I had one trader tell me that this was no big deal. "The Dow hasn't had a correction in month's". Another said to me "This is a correction, pretty sad one at that". Then the guy's on CNBC seem to be looking for the next move down. This is a sentiment I heard over and over again from many traders on the street. But what if it doesn't come? I certainly was not a fan of today's bounce. Although relatively broad based (75% of S&P and 17-30 Dow stocks were up today)it did not have substantial staying power and only a 12% retracement. I think that if you are bullish you should be legging into longs. Buy in regular intervals, an equal amount each time. This is called Dollar Cost Averaging. If you are a bear, sell your holdings and move to Treasuries. But remember that stocks tend to rebound (remember 1987 and 2001)and if you get out totally you miss the growth (if it occurs) over the longer term.

For Foreign Exchange I am equally confused. One friend of mine said that the Euro had some catching up to do. Meaning a sell off in the Euro. This was certainly against my thinking. The U.S. economy is slowing (see previous post with today's number's)and Stocks and Emerging Markets are under some pressure. This is not a market that I want to be long Dollars. Yes, i know the old saying about running to dollars in times of crisis, but it would seem that the dollar should suffer in this market (it has been under pressure for the past few years). For now I have been trading dollars from the short side but with a very short lease. Not my style at all. More number's tomorrow. Most analysts expect further weakness, which in turn should put some pressure on stocks.

Chinese Stocks better overnight

The Chinese Stock Market rebounded last night as apparent bargin humters entered the market. The Shanghai index closed up almost 4% last night. Is this the end? I am not sure. GDP numbers were just out and were basically as expected. Fed Fund futures are now increasing the probabilty of a rate decrease in the 2-6 month region. I think that overall it was a big move yesterday but remember, what type of retracements have we had over the past 12-24 months. No thing really major. I would not enter into stocks at this time as we will probably have better buying opportunites in the days ahead. To many "talking heads" saying that this was not a big deal. Another weak Chicago Purchasing Manager at 47.9 (expected 50.0) will certaimly not help.

Good Luck and if you are looking for me I will be under my desk.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Stocks, Currencies and Van Halen all come crashing down

Stocks today led by China overnight have come crashing off. The Shanghai (China Exchange) was off 8.8% on the back of restrictions put in place to stem hot money flowing into the country. This has caused a spill over "panic" to the Western Stock exchanges which came under intense pressure. The Bovespa down 7.3%, Bolsa down 4.4%, Nasdaq -3.75%, the Dow down 3.75% and the list goes on and on. Couple this with Emerging Market currencies coming off (hard) and you have the makings of a melt down. I am getting calls from alot of people asking me "What do you think?". I think you are caught just like me and all the rest of the Yield Monkey's. I cut all of my spot risk (actually stopped out!) but I continue to run my interest rate risk.

Hold on this ride is not over yet and with the calls I am getting there is going to be more blood on the street.

This and the Van Halen tour has been canceled.

Can't we all just get along ?

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

EM under Pressure.....

Mexico is opening above the top of the channel at 11.1250. The markets certainly do not "feel good", and I would look for more of a melt down as the day progresses. The dollar is under pressure from all corners, with is slipping to 1.3205 against the Euro. I will continue to look for a weaker dollars across the board and also look for an opportunity to re-establish, and add to existing EM risk.


These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading


FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Boy was I wrong.....

What started out (at least to me) as a calm day changed pretty quickly. Certain currencies at least. Specifically Mexico. It seems that a certain local bank BBVA put out a report today basically saying that the Mexican Central Bank is on course to hike rates to 7.25% in March and to 7.5% in May. Hhhhhmmmmm.....Not what the doctor ordered. They feel that if the CB waits any longer it will become increasingly difficult to contain inflation. The curve steepened out at a higher level on the back of this report. So where does this leave me and my positions. I have squared most of my spot positions and have cut down on the longer end of my Mexican interest rate play. I repeat CUT DOWN, not totally cut. I also added alot to my shorter end play. Selling 1mth Mexico (Forwards) against buying 1 week. I think the curve provides an opportunity even if you think the CB hikes next month.

These markets are typical of an environment of uncertainty (and possible change in direction). I rarely trade well under these conditions and will keep my positions on the smaller side until (if ever!) a clearer direction can be seen. I do not hold out hope that this will occur in the near term. I am however still long Euro's. Although I was very disappointed that the market retraced some of it's o/n gains, I am confident that when I walk in tomorrow the Euro will be above 1.3200.

Brazil, I still see little reason for a change in the rate environment but the spot is anyones guess. I went long a few Usd/Cop, only because I was short everything and needed some sort of a hedge. Bad idea, Usd/Cop continued to come lower. I will reasses this in the morning. Note to self ...Do not enter positions just to hedge other's without having a clear plan before hand.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for Tonight.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Markets opening abit calmer this morning

Markets seem to be abit calmer this morning after a slight nervousness on Friday. This in spite of some tough talk coming out of Iran.

President Mahamoud Ahmadinejad stating "no brake and no reverse gear".

Oil now above $61 per barrel makes commidity based currencies continue to look attractive. I will continue with my current trades.

Long Euro/Usd
Long Chile/Usd
Long Krw/Usd

Short Cny/Usd
Short Sgd/Usd

Short Brazil and Mexico Rates.

I see no reason to change these positions for now. I do not have large positions currently so I am nimble in case it is necessary.

These are the Fx Trading Ideas for Today

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Thought for the day.......

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Deja Moo: The feeling that you've heard this Bull Before.
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Oil prices here to stay??

An article on Bloomberg this morning has me convinced that oil prices will not be returning to 20-30 dollars per share. A year or so ago on the 60 minutes television show they did a segment on the oils sands in Canada. These sands are in a remote part of Canada and according to the article are the second largest oil reserve this side of Saudi Arabia. The problem is that it is very expensive to get the oil out of the sand and then refine it into a use able product. Canadian officials as well as all of the oil companies have know about the oil fields existence for many many years, they have just done little to no thing with the "sands" until recently. Why?, because now the price of oil is high enough to allow oil companies to get the oil out of the sands and then refine it. I do not remember the exact numbers but I believe the 60 Minutes episode mentioned something about 40-50 dollars a barrel. According to the attached article oil companies are providing workers with luxury accommodation (well as luxurious as the middle of Canada can be). Maid service, private rooms, flat screen cable TV. They are also investing in the region, building a resort type facility equipted with a bar and ice hockey rink (remember this is Canada). I cannot see these oil companies investing all of this time and money into this project unless they felt oil prices would stay in a price range which allows them to refine this oil in a profitable way. Oil today is 60 dollars a barrel. I see it in one direction in the coming years, and based on this article it seems the oil companies would not disagree.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for Today.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading

WWW.FXTRADINGIDEAS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Volitilty declining

There is an interesting article on the Bloomberg website this morning. Lower volatility in the Treasury markets has led to less firms (CIBC being the latest)being "primary dealers". This is because with less volatility you need to do much bigger size transactions to generate similar income. Being in a Dealing room all day I still here "old School" sales people talking about Vol being to low. When I hear that I cannot say YOUR'S fast enough. Although I have been around a while, I feel that I am capable of seeing the markets of today as being very different. As I said in a previous post a market friend of mine refers to me (and other holder's of the carry trade) as "Yield Monkeys". Well yes very true, but I hold this belief in the opinion that rates globally are on a collision course. Why? Because Emerging Markets such as Korea, Brazil, China etc etc etc are developing fixed income markets. As such there is actual depth and structure to the yield curve. Also information is much more readily available. I can remember back during the Asian crisis of 1998. Many times (and I repeat MANY) I would be paid in a forward Asian currency well above the going rate. By this I mean being paid 1 mth Singapore at 20% when 2 months was being offered at 5% (Seriously!). Why, because the other players in the market didn't understand what was going on and were afraid of running a gap. This does not happen (well at least not to that extent) today.

I truly believe that the U.S. market still leds the way for the rest of the world. As such if we are quiet (look at the Fed Fund contract's, no rate change till August!) then the rest of the world should be in a similar situation.

The markets have changed. Embrace it. Does that mean we will not get a "flush out", of course not. But it important to see the markets as they are and not as they were or more importantly as you want them to be.

These are the FX Trading (Macro) Ideas for today.

Good Luck and Good Forex trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Trying to bring Iran back to the table

In todays USA Today there is an article about continued efforts to bring Iran back to the negotiationg table. This is good news. Clearly there is no desire by any of the members of this "coalition" to use force to stop Iran's nuclear program. Iran states in the article that it has "called for talks with the U.S". Great news.... but now what? In calling for talks they also state that they have not budged on council demands that it mothball its enrichment program. I certainly am not calling for an attack, but it seems to me that this tactic (talking) will not work either. Iran will only stop their program if they get something in return (think N Korea that needs food and other basic supplies for day to day living). But what, and who should provide those goods? It would seem logical to me that Russia and Europe should be taking the lead in these talks. Iran hates the U.S. to begin with so why rub it in their faces by being the lead negotiator. Just a few thoughts to start your day.....

The dollar has strengthened abit against the majors overnight, much to my dismay. But Emerging Market currencies continue to strengthen. Brazil, Mexico and Chile leading the pack. Turkey (TRY) is on the support line that I talked about a few post's ago (1.3800) and looking ready to go lower.

Stay the course for now. Yield rules !!

These are the FX Trading Ideas for Today

More Ramblings later.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Japan goes 25bp

Japan raised rates last night 25bp to .5%. This is in line with market expectations as recent numbers and comments for CB officials has clearly led the market to this conclusion. The Yen originally strengthened on the news and as of the last 60 minutes reversed course and has broken through yesterday's low against the Dollar. This could be a classic example of Sell the rumor buy the fact story. Keep a keen eye on Usd/Krw. I am hearing that large scale buying of dollars has been occuring over the last few weeks. With the Yen story out of the way it could signal a move up in the dollar against the Yen.

For me I am still short Dollars against

Brazil
Mexico
Euro

Long dollars against

Singapore
Chile

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.

Good Luck and Good Forex trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Dollar little changed.

The markets so far this year have developed into a bit of a bore. No trend, rather up's and down's while traders get stopped out looking to grab hold of any potential trend. On Wednesday we have a (much anticipated and talked about) rate announcement out of Japan. The Yen weakened since Friday, and my thinking is any Yen strength is temporary, The yield differential is to great. Also other countries around the world are coming to an end of their tightening cycle. I do not think the Japanese will risk ending their recovery by raising rates to fast. If the rest of the world are coming to an end of a tightening cycle, I think they will procede very caustiously.


A few Forex thoughts to start your week.


FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

What goes up, must come down.

It seems that the Icelandic Krona has led all currency gains this year, up 5% against the dollar and 6% against the Euro according to Bloomberg news. This is not surprising to me. It is almost like the "Dogs of the Dow" theory. Where you buy the worst preforming, highest yielding stocks in the Dow from the previous year. Does it continue throughout the year, I can't tell you for sure, but remember it doesn't even have to appreciate to make this trade good. Staying still (and collecting the 15%yield) isn't so bad either. The appreciation is a bonus as far as I am concerned. Keep an eye on Turkey (Try)also as a similar story is going on there. A co-worker calls me a "Yield monkey". That may very well be true, and it may all come crashing down around me, but one of my bigger themes to the market's is that interest rates globally will converge. This as "Emerging Markets" become developed markets. If I am correct then when you see the turn (i.e. Brazil 18-24months ago)you jump in with one foot and after the trend is established drag the other one in! Remember a key element to this trade is time frame. You will not be correct from the beginning and there will be many (I repeat many!) ups and downs. So make sure that you keep your trade small enough to withstand the swings. A trade is no good if you get stopped out before it goes your way.

These are the FX Trading Ideas and Theories for today.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

GPS....continued

So a few weeks ago I wrote about my experiences with a GPS system that was in a car I rented while Pittsburgh (see Feb 5 post). Well this week a friend presented me with a wonderful gift, my very own Garmin c550 streetpilot (Thanks cL). I installed it yesterday, which consisted of openening the box and plugging it in. That was is, I was ready to go. Go without the slightest chance of getting lost. We used it officially Last night on a trip to my son's basketball playoff game (which they won in a very close contest...oh and my son played well). Although I had little idea where I was exactly, the system delivered us to the game and back without a problem. It mounts to the dash very neatly and seemed very stable. On the box it says it has bluetooth technology "for hands free calling" and an MP3 player. I have no idea how those services work yet but I will read up on them today. I am very pleased with my new toy and look forward to using it frequently.

These are the Ramblings of a FX Trader.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

WWW.FXTRADINGIDEAS.COM

Be Prepared......

Market’s, like life, can hit you out of no where. Take for example the storms this week causing havoc throughout the North East. Motorists were stranded on a 50 mile stretch of highway for nearly a day. This occurred on a section of interstate 78 in eastern Pennsylvania. National Guard troops had to ferry in food, fuel and baby supplies according to the article. Think about in your own life, how often do you leave the house for a quick journey, maybe to the grocery store, or to run some other errand. Probably, if you are like me you do not dress for the weather (you are in the car the entire way right?). How often do you think you can fill up your tank on the next trip? Well I am sure a lot of the people stuck on this highway wished they had stopped to fill up the tank, go to the bathroom or stored that blanket in the trunk like AAA tells us to do.

This is quite similar to Trading in the markets. Are you prepared for an unforeseen occurrence? Do you have an exit strategy? These days with everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) talking about carry trades are you prepared is it starts to go bad. Stay the course (I frequently do this)? Double up (I almost never do this)? Cut down on the position (I sometimes do this)? What ever your plan, the most important thing is to have one. Also remember that your plan may have to change. What if your exit strategy is to cut the position, but when you are looking to get out there are no offers (or bids) in your product/currency?

Something that I find helpful is to watch currencies which trade in the same region. As an example if I am short dollars in Argentina, I know that if the “world falls a part” I am never getting out of that position. Rather I would look for a proxy hedge. Usd/Clp or Usd/Mxn might be a possibility. I would keep this on until liquidity returned to the market and I could exit my positions in a more efficient manner. Remember this is not a science, but rather a technique of knowing your market. It will not always work but if you are prepared (like I bet a bunch of people on the highway wish they were) you will be able to deal with the situation in a more efficient manner.

This is one of the FX Trading Theories that I follow.


Good Luck and Good Forex Trading


FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Long weekend ahead.....

So another week is grinding to an end. Similar themes are still in play.

Weaker dollar.
Stronger EM currencies.
U.S. rates edging lower.
Strong Stock Market.

I see no thing in the near term future to change these views. Although I believe oil prices will spike I think it will be in the 1-2 year time perspective. Therefore that is a Macro view and a bit more difficult to use when trading.

Good Luck, and Good Forex Trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Green Light to Yield Trades

Fed Chairman effectively gave an endorsement to carry trades yesterday but proclaiming the the U.S. economy was healty and that inflation pressures were moderating. Stocks rallied as did fixed income instruments. With his statements yesterday the market has now placed little chance to a rate movement in the next 5months. The Fed Funds contracts are basically 94.75 the entire way out.

Emerging Markets currencies all did well on the back of this, both from the currency perspective and the fixed income market. I heard some rumbling's in the Try market that locals did not expect Try to go below 1.3800. We will see, but if fundamentals are strong and yield is high, there is little they can do over the medium term to stop it.

I think stay with weak Dollar positions across the board.

These are the FX thoughts for the day.

Good Luck and Good Forex trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Emerging Markets continue calm....

The Emerging Market currencies are once again trading with a general swagger. With North Korea making nice (so far at least) since agreeing to a energy for arms agreement. In the absense of any "wild" news I see no reason to "buck" the trend. As they say If you buck the trend you get it in the end. Who wants that?!?! Not Me!

The big dollar is a approaching interesting territory. It has been weakening of late and it looks to me like it can move to 1.3250 (current level 1.3080) over the next few days. There are a few economic numbers out starting today (see below) but with bad weather on the east coast and a U.S. holiday on Monday, I do not see alot of new direction coming out of the market.

Retail Sales Expected +.3
Plus Bernanke report on Economy & Fed Policy.



These are a few Random Fx Thoughts for today.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Emerging Markets looking good

Emerging Market currencies are looking stronger on the opening today, after a clearly jittery session yesterday. I am hearing that over 1 billion usd were purchased on the BMF (Brazil futures market) to cut down on existing short positions. Usd/Mxn,Usd/Clp along with other regions (Try,Isk) all opening on the strong side. Will it continue? Time will tell but I like being short for the time being (I have been this way for months now).

Yesterday the Mexican CB yesterday all but ruled out a rate hile when stating that he felt inflation was contained. The market took this news very good. Buying Mexican interest rate products and sell dollars in the spot market.

My plan stays intact. I am currently long higher yielding currencies (although yesterday certainly tested my resolve) and I continue to ride the curve in Mexican Forwards and look for rate cuts in Brazil.

These are the FX Trading Comments for today.

Good luck and Good Forex trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Emerging Market currencies opening weaker...

Emerging market currencies are being the week where they left off last, weaker. This on the back of the G7 comments, which to me were very little and thew comments out of the middle East concerning oil. The comments coming from oil ministers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, were that OPEC may very well keep output unchanged at its March 15 meeting.

Dollar Yen remains weak. The market was expecting some sort of a statement out of the G7 and nothing came of it. Therefore many dealers "piled" back in, as in recent days there had been some scaling back of positions.

There were also comments out of South Africa. President Mbeki said that it is time to start considering alternatives to raising rates to reign in credit expansion, as rates are a blunt tool and drive the currency stronger.

All in all not a very good start for EM currencies. I remain with my positions for now (short dollars and looking for lower rates..in Latin America).

These are the FX Trading Ideas/Comments for today

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Latin American Emerging Markets…plus a little G7

Two countries remain in focus at this time as the Brazilian Real sold off for the third day in a row to end the weak at 2.1080 after president Lula’s party had demanded that the central bank make changes to its monetary and currency policies, according to a statement posted on the party's Web site yesterday. ``A new monetary and exchange rate policy by the central bank is a necessary condition for the sustained growth of the Brazilian economy,'' the statement said. The party’s statement does not necessarily reflect the president’s view. The government also feels that interest rates are not being cut fast enough.
Mexico
Goldman Sach’s Mexican economist has put off his rate cut prediction by one quarter as a result of the inflation situation in Mexico at the moment. ``Given the bank's language, we believe that right now is not the appropriate time to be talking about rate cuts,'' Leme said in a phone interview from Miami. ``Basically, we're putting off our rate cut expectations by one quarter”. The central bank is predicting that inflation will fall to between 3.5-4.0% in the first half of the year. Down from 4-4.5% currently. The target for inflation from the central bank is 2-4%.
As many readers already know I am short dollars against both of these currencies and looking for interest rate cuts (or at least unchanged in the case of Mexico) in both countries. Based on the current economic numbers I think I am on track although the talk coming out of Brazil on the Real is a bit concerning. I will closely monitor this position but bottom line to me is if interest rates continue to come off the market will need to buy Real’s to purchase fixed income products.
I received a lot of the information for this entry from Bloomberg.com
As for the G7 it seems that little was said about the Yen and Carry trades in general, although I bet it will be on everyone’s radar screen going forward. The Central Bankers talked a bit about leverage but again didn’t seem all that concerned. They noted that “The funds more than tripled since the Federal Reserve organized a bailout of Long Term Capital Management LP in 1998 to prevent billions of losses rippling through Wall Street”, but that the Amaranth melt down caused little disruption to the market. Seems to me that there will be no regulation of Hedge funds is in the immediate future.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

G7 this weekend

The G7 meeting will be taking place this weekend and all eyes will be focused on Asia and Asian currencies. Canada's Flaherty stated today that the Yen is not specifically on G7 agenda but expects discussions. As do I ! with all the talk over the past few weeks (specifically out of Europe) look for this to be discussed (even if not mentioned afterward) as it is clearly a big concern of the Europe.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Russia,Iran and North Korea

A few random comments on Emerging Markets.....

It looks like the market got what it was anticipating in the form of a revaluation. The RUB this morning is opening 10 KOP stronger (.33% appreciation). Rates have moved abit higher on the back of that. This move in rates I believe will be short lived.

Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says that Tehran will hit U.S. interests worldwide if attacked. The market has had little reaction to this statement but it one of the few statements being made by the Supreme leader toward the U.S. This comes as tensions are heating up as the U.S. has stated its belief that the insurgents that downed U.S. helicoptors earlier this week were possible backed by Iran.

North Korea

Statement just out:

"North Korea says willing to take measures towards ending nuclear programme"- S Korean source. This statement coming from Reuters news.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Bernanke, Education and my kitchen sink.

Fed Chairman Bernanke came out yesterday and stressed that education and not imposing barriers to trade and technology, would help fix the income gap. Creating barriers would "do far more harm than good".

This is a concept which makes sense to me. By saying education, I do not think it means just a formal education. As I wrote about yesterday I was away on a personel trip earlier in the week, upon my return the pipes in my kitchen were frozen solid. Now this has happened many times in the past and in all cases a little space heater placed in a crawl space saved the day. That is until yesterDAY. I was able to get the water moving just not in a traditional sense. Broken pipes sure let out alot of water and not in very good places. I was able to turn off the main water line and had a plumber stop by last night.

Bottom line.....Today I have

1. An electrician installing a space heater in my crawl space.

and

2. A plumber will then comeand fix the pipes.

I can hear the cash registar ringing as I write this post. There is really nothing I can do. It needs to be fixed and I need to do something so that it will not happen again. It is not a situation where you can ask for estimates or "haggle" on a price. Really I am stuck between the rock and a wet space. So when Mr Bernanke talks about education I think that trade skills come into play as much as a "formal" education. I am sure that I will be writing checks today to the electrician and plumber in excess of my daily pay.

These are the Ramblings of an FX Trader.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Quiet Market

The market seems to want to do little for the time being. As such it seems to me that carry and range trading should be in play. Mexico Stopped at the top of its range (see my post from Jan 30) but Brazil broke it range and has continued (See Feb 1 )lower. Therefore play the range until it is broken. I see potential for Brazil to have a problem at the 2.05-2.08 area. So I would not sell dollars aggressivly here, but rather wait for the break to initate a substantial position. For now I continue to be short small dollars and short rates in Brazil and Mexico.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

GPS

GPS....Global Positioning System. What a concept. Now I am sure you are laughing thinking that this "concept" has been around for a long time and that millions and millions of people use it everyday. Well not thin Banker. Sure I have heard of it, but purchase it never. Well that all changed after my experiences the last two days. Yesterday I flew into Pittsburgh on some personnel business. Upon my arrival I rented a car. The man at the counter saw me fumbling with some maps and asked if I needed some directions. He then proceeded to draw out my route on the maps which I had. As an after thought he asked me if I wanted a GPS system in my car. I asked if he thought it was necessary (stupid question huh?). He said "You will never get lost and it is a really cool piece of equipment". I said sure I would try it. After picking up the car I punched in the address of the hotel and let the GPS system take over. Although at one point I was slightly concerned that I might be off course, the system safely directed me to my destination in a quick and efficient manner. Today, more of the same, two appointments and quick, effective directions back to New York. To say I was pleased with the GPS system is an understatement. I will be looking at purchasing a model in the very near future. For those who have never tried it, I would suggest taking a look at a system.

Hey by the way not a bad prediction yesterday huh ?!?!

These are the Ramblings for today.

Good Luck and Good FX Trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Super Bowl Sunday

Well the hype finally ends today. After two weeks of buildup we finally get to see the game, the LONG game. Please remember that I am a big Football fan. I say long in the sense that the NFL lengthens the game to enhance revenues and promote the game. A longer (6hours, after a two week buildup , what more is there to say!?) pregame, a different warm up schedule, two weeks between games, a longer half time and longer and more frequent commercials. How do you expect teams to play up to their potential when you change their game day routines so drastically. I have often looked at trading from an athletes prospective. I like certain routines. I get totally messed up if my computer does not work correctly or if a new system is put into play, which requires me to execute my trades (or look at risk, P/L etc) in a different way. I understand that change is good. I really do, but to get used to change takes more then a day. traders need an adjustment time, in which they probably trade a little less. Athletes need time too, but in the case of the Super Bowl, do not really get it. So sit down and enjoy the game and vote for your favorite commercial.

PREDICTION:

Colts 31 Bears 19

I think the Colts are from the better divsion and therefore take it. I may be wrong...but I have a 50/50 chance of being correct !

These are the Ramblings of an FX Trader......

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

U.S. Employment today

Th United States will announce it's Employment numbers today. According to Bloomberg the following numbers are expected.
Nonfarm Payroll's 150k
Unemplotment Rate 4.5%
Factory Orders 1.9%
Michigan Confidence 98.0

I think that the market is expecting stronger numbers. Therefore they have to be pretty strong to get a big reaction from the market. Conversely a weak number should have a significant effect.

These are the FX Trading Thoughts for the day.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM

Thought for the day

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I went to a seafood disco last week.....and pulled a muscle
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Emerging Markets looking good

Brazil has broken through some important support (see Chart) after the Fed signaled (at least to me) that rates will be steady in the coming months. Mexico also broke lower on this news and interest rates in the region eased. Usd/Asia was hit hard o/n as the market took Paulson's comments and ran with them. China in particular was considerably lower, which must have made U.S. officials quite happy. As I wrote yesterday I reentered the EM waters in a small way and will try to add a little to the positions today.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading

FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM